Tag Archives: Probability Theory

How To Gamble And Win

Cincinnati Kid

If you want to be a winning gambler, play against someone dumber than you.

As it goes, that is one of only two ways to almost guarantee you will come out ahead in games of chance.  All casinos, bookmakers, and on-line gambling sites religiously follow this rule.  Think about all the gullible people who go to Las Vegas, most of them set a limit on how much they are prepared to lose, and that’s before they even walk into a casino.  After they start hitting the booze, who knows?

Just how dumb is that?  Imagine saying I am prepared to stand in a bar tomorrow, and slowly tear up $300, and then set fire to the pieces.  Broadly, that’s what you’re doing if you bet against the house in a casino.  But, there is one thing you can bet your life on, in the medium and long-term, the house always wins.  Always.  But that doesn’t matter to gamblers, because they never talk about thow much they’ve lost, only about how much they’ve won.  Gamblers are so dumb, and so very sad.

Most people who gamble are as dumb as a doornail, in one very specific way, they gamble.  Even otherwise highly intelligent people are dumb when it comes to betting / gambling / playing cards / playing the ponies…

Maybe the most intelligent 10% who gamble have some idea of how it all works, but almost all of them make two mistakes.  First, they think there is such a thing as a ‘system’.  Second, they think gambling is based on statistics.  Both assumptions are completely false.

wiccan moonThere is no system in pure games of chance.  None whatsoever.  A system that guarantees winning at any game of chance is a complete myth.  Even consulting a witch and her familiar never works.  So, if you think you know how to win at roulette, you’re even dumber than I thought you were.

Statistics cannot predict the future, and betting is all about predicting the future.  Statistics only measures the past, and is useless to a gambler unless you are both an odds-player, and a card-counter.  Can you remember every card played out of a possible 52, or out of 312?  I can’t.  If you can you will get thrown out of the casino anyhow.

Anyhow, if you’re that good, perhaps you should be betting at the craps table.

To predict the future you have to know about probability theory.  Probability theory is to statistics as putting a man on the moon is to thermodynamics.  But, if you know all about random variables, stochastic processes, and quantum mechanics, then you may have a future as a gambler.  And, you will still get thrown out of the casino.

At this point you may realise two things; #1. I know about gambling.  #2. I think gambling and gamblers are very dumb.

The second way to almost guarantee you will come out ahead in games of chance is to cheat.  But, I won’t tell you how to do that either.

~

albert-einsteinjackcollier7@talktalk.net

liebster-12

 

A Power Greater Than Ourselves

SOMETIMES, SELF-WILL AND EFFORT ARE JUST NOT ENOUGH

In 12 step recovery programmes this is step 2.  In Alcoholics Anonymous the full text reads;

We came to believe that a Power greater than ourselves could restore us to sanity. ~ The Big Book of Alcoholics Anonymous.

For many people trying to recover from an addiction to alcohol, street drugs, prescription drugs, gambling, shoplifting…, this is where it all falls apart.  One may have been dry and clean for a while, (although cigarettes and candy will have taken the place of the primary addiction), but here we begin to flirt with the idea of God.

Addicts and people under great stress have poor memories, they will have forgotten that when they were at their nadir they will have said something like; ‘Please God, get me out of this one…’  In any event, in the quotation given above where does it say God?  It doesn’t, it says; a Power greater than ourselves.  Addiction is self-will writ large; egotism, egomania, narcissism, conceit, and vanity are all part of the psychology of an addict.  Addicts and the otherwise mentally ill believe they are the most important person in the Cosmos ~ that belief has to be smashed.

Addiction, stress, anxiety, depression, bi-polar disorder, anorexia, binge eating disorder, psychotic disorders, exhibitionism…, (the list could go on and on), all produce a state of desperation.  A state where the sufferer is willing to do almost anything to escape from the see-saw of euphoria and misery that they endure.  Anything, except believe that there is more in this Cosmos than themselves ~ addiction and self-absorption go together like ham and eggs.

Trust me on this, one does not have to believe in the God of our childhood, or the God of our parents, or the God of whatever church or religion we theoretically belong to.  Lapsed Christians, lapsed Jews,  Agnostics, atheists, sun worshipers, druids, can all come to believe that there is a power in the universe that is greater than they are.  In 12 step recovery programmes this sometimes known as ‘finding your higher power.’

I believe in a higher power and I believe in good and bad, right and wrong.  You sleep in the bed you make. ~ Leif Garrett.

Lief Garrett, singer, actor, television personality, one time drug addict, member of the Church of Scientology, often in legal difficulties.

Infinity

the nothingness of infinity

So we’re in physical and mental torment of one sort or another.  In order to recover we need to give up some of our egomaniacal self-will, narcissistic denial, and the conceit that we can stop doing whatever destructive behaviour we suffer from, whenever we want to.  Whether one believes in a Deity, or not, recovery from addiction and a range of other destructive behaviours depends on faith and spirituality.  The human mind finds it much easier to believe in something, rather than believing in nothing, (although one could believe in nothingness and infinity.)

There is something about modern man and woman, particularly men and women who are suffering extreme distress, which makes it difficult for them to accept that there is anything beyond what they can see, hear, taste, touch, smell, or otherwise detect with one of our many other senses.  Very well, what if I quote from one of the most brilliant minds of the 20th Century?  A man so smart that 99% of the people in the world don’t even understand what he was getting at.

The most beautiful and most profound experience is the sensation of the mystical.  It is the sower of all true science.  He to whom this emotion is a stranger, who can no longer wonder and stand rapt in awe, is as good as dead.  To know that what is impenetrable to us really exists, manifesting itself as the highest wisdom and the most radiant beauty which our dull faculties can comprehend only in their primitive forms ~ this knowledge, this feeling is at the center of all true spirituality, (geistigkeit). ~ Albert Einstein, The Merging of Spirit and Science.

Albert Einstein, theoretical physicist and philosopher of science.

Quantum physics and probability theory are both pretty wedded to the fact that nothing is impossible.  People being what they are, if one gives a lot of them three choices;

  1. There is definitely no God, Goddess, Higher Power, or a Power greater than me.
  2. There may or may not be a Higher Power, Earth Goddess, Power of the Cosmos, et alii.
  3. There is a Higher Power, Mother Goddess, Power of the Universe, Isis and Aphrodite.  I know because I have faith.

There is no possibility whatsoever that they would be able to come to a consensus of opinion.  The proof of this is in Arrow’s impossibility theorem.  Therefore, it doesn’t really matter what one believes in, as long as one believes in something that is greater than a single human being ~ that is, greater than you.  We cannot go on just existing, we need faith and spirituality in order to live ~ after all, we are broken human beings.

Spiral GalaxyNGC1365

if you can’t believe in anything else, believe in the Power of the Cosmos

Personally, I walked the road of recovery from my disease by believing in the power of the Cosmos.  It didn’t matter what I believed in, as long as I believed that there was a Power greater than myself.  If you can’t even manage that, then believe in the fact that you want to believe in something, because that will put you on the road to spirituality and recovery from whatever syndromes you suffer from.

The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence. ~ Carl Sagan, in Cosmos.

Carl Edward Sagan, astronomer, astrophysicist, cosmologist, author, science populariser, researcher into extraterrestrial life.

All of human life requires faith.  Faith in gravity, in the laws of physics, in birth, love, life and death.  To recover from serious addiction, mental illness, extreme stress, also requires faith and spirituality.

Given that I am currently not only on planet weird, I am deep in the jungle on planet weird, after experiencing reincarnation into my own life, I need a hell of a lot more faith and spirituality than most.  Currently it suits me to believe in my vision of the Goddesses Isis and Aphrodite.  They are my higher powers, not yours.  You need to find your own higher power for yourself to achieve true spirituality.

excalibur1

for some reason my vision of Isis is confused with The Lady of the Lake